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Home prices post 30th straight year-over-year gain in August

Analysts expect continued increases, but at a slower pace

By James Limbach

Home prices -- including distressed sales -- posted a year-over-year gain of 6.4% in August.

Property information provider CoreLogic says it's the 30th month of consecutive year-over-year increases by its Home Price Index (HPI). On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide inched up 0.3%.

At the state level, all states showed year-over-year home price appreciation in August. In addition, the HPI reached new highs in a total of 9 states -- Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas and Wyoming -- plus the District of Columbia.

Excluding distressed sales, which include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions, home prices nationally increased 5.9% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month.

"The pace of year-over-year appreciation continues to slow down as real estate markets find more balance,”said Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Home price appreciation reached a peak of almost 12% year-over-year in October 2013 and has since subsided to the current pace of 6%t. Continued moderation of home price appreciation is a welcomed sign of more balanced real estate markets and less pressure on affordability for potential home buyers in the near future."

August highlights

·        Including distressed sales, the 5 states with the highest home price appreciation were: Michigan (+11.1%), California (+9.2%), Nevada (+9.2%), Maine (+9%) and West Virginia (+8.7%).

·        Excluding distressed sales, the 5 states with the highest home price appreciation were: Massachusetts (+9.4%), Maine (+9.3%), West Virginia (+8.9%), Hawaii (+8.7%) and South Carolina (+8.1%).

·        Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to August 2014) was -12.1%. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -8.6%.

·        The 5 states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-36.2%), Florida (-33.4%), Arizona (-28.9%), Rhode Island (-26.8%) and Maryland (-20.2%).

·        Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 30 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, the national average is no longer posting double-digit increases.

·        Ninety-eight of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in August 2014. The two CBSAs that did not show an increase were Rochester, N.Y. and Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.

Looking ahead

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates home prices -- including distressed sales -- will increase 0.2 percent% over month from August 2014 to September 2014 and, on a year-over-year basis, by 5.2%.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to rise 0.2% month over month and by 4.7% year over year.  

Gladstone Group

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